Monday, January 25, 2010

The Good and The Bad:
Assessing the Giants' Postseason Transactions

Pitchers and catchers are reporting and spring training fever is in the air. Its time to look back at the Giants offseason moves, analyzing the good and the bad to craft our assessment.

Freddy Sanchez, 2B 2 years, $12 million
The Good: If healthy, Sanchez is an average to above-average offensive second baseman (career .299/.334/.417), and should at least be an improvement on what the Giants threw out there the first half of 2009. By most estimates, he plays solid defense (career 5.8 UZR/150 at second).

The Bad: Sanchez's health is a big if, as his most recent shoulder surgery has left him questionable for opening day. His offensive value is very much tied to his batting average, as he doesn't take very many walks or hit for much power.

Verdict: If he can stay in the lineup, Sanchez should be worth the money. However, there were probably better, cheaper options (Kelly Johnson, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson) available if Sabean had let the market play itself out.

Mark DeRosa, OF/IF 2 years, $12 million
The Good: Until last year, he was a reliable, above-average bat, who gets on base at a reasonable, if not spectacular rate (career .275/.343/.424). He's hit at least twenty home runs each of the last two years. The Giants plan to play him in the outfield, where he has played his best defense in the past (15.8 UZR/150).

The Bad: He's coming off his worst season in several years, which was shortened by a wrist injury.

Verdict: Let's hope he's healthy, and that his ineffectiveness last year was a result of his injury. He should be a better option than Eugenio Velez.

Juan Uribe, IF 1 year, $3.25 million
The Good: Signed on a minor league contract, Uribe came out of nowhere in 2009 to have the best year of his career. He plays second, shprt, and third adequately, which is valuable given the frailty of the Giants' middle infield.

The Bad: When something looks like a fluke, it usually is. Uribe's career line (.257/.298/.430) suggests that some regression is likely.

Verdict: The money may have been better spent elsewhere, but Uribe's versatility and power make him a solid bench option, especially given the injury to Sanchez.

Aubrey Huff, 1B 1 year, $3 million

The Good: Aside from a disastrous 2009, Huff has been an average to above-average hitter. As recently as 2008, he hit .304/.360/.552 with 32 home runs. Maybe getting out of the AL East will have a positive effect.

The Bad: The bat's no sure thing, and his defense probably negates whatever offensive value he may have.

Verdict: It's hard to believe the Giants couldn't have gotten similar, and probably more production, from Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa.


Bengie Molina, C 1 year, $4.5 million
The Good: He hits for a decent amount of power for a catcher. The pitchers seem to like him.

The Bad: He had the worst on-base percentage (.285) in the NL last year, while swinging at the highest percentage (43.9%) of pitches outside the zone. His lack of speed can be a rally-killer. He blocks Buster Posey, who has little left to prove in the minors, for another year.

Verdict: This signing wouldn't be so bad if the Giants needed a catcher. But Posey is at most a few months away from the majors, and there's no way he will start as long as Molina is on this team. Pitchers have to adjust to new catchers all the time, and they had no problem with Eli Whiteside last year. Most discouragingly, this move shows the front office's continued reliance on old-school conventional wisdom as opposed to reasoned analysis.

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It has been difficult to be a Giants fan these last several years - losing records, injuries, and bad contracts. We may be critical - but we stand by our team through good times and bad. The Giants remain one of the most storied franchises in the history of baseball and have a crop of new stars ready to add new pages to the Giants history books. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson and Sandoval are giving us reasons to be excited. Times may not always be stellar, but the Giants always give us something to talk about.